Oscar Predictions

Okay, so I dropped the ball in terms of writing up about all of the major Oscar nominees. But here you go: my predictions of the Academy Awards. You'll find my predictions, alternates, and preferences. I have seen all the nominees unless otherwise noted. If I make no preference, I have not seen any of the nominees (basically, I haven't seen the nominated documentaries or shorts).

Best Motion Picture of the Year
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

Prediction: Slumdog Millionaire
Alternate: The Reader
Preference: The Reader

Achievement in Directing
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Gus Van Sant, Milk
Stephen Daldry, The Reader
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire

Prediction: Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Alternate: David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Preference: Gus Van Sant, Milk

Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

Prediction: Sean Penn
Alternate: Mickey Rourke
Preference: Sean Penn or Mickey Rourke

Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, The Reader

Prediction: Kate Winslet
Alternate: Meryl Streep
Preference: Kate Winslet

Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road

Prediction: Heath Ledger
Alternate: Josh Brolin
Preference: Heath Ledger

Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penélope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler

Prediction: Viola Davis
Alternate: Penélope Cruz
Preference: Marisa Tomei

Adapted Screenplay
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Eric Roth and Robin Swicord
Doubt, John Patrick Shanley
Frost/Nixon, Peter Morgan
The Reader, David Hare
Slumdog Millionaire, Simon Beaufoy

Prediction: Slumdog Millionaire
Alternate: The Reader
Preference: The Reader

Original Screenplay
Frozen River, Courtney Hunt
Happy-Go-Lucky, Mike Leigh
In Bruges, Martin McDonagh
Milk, Dustin Lance Black
WALL•E, Andrew Stanton, Jim Reardon, Pete Docter

Prediction: WALL•E
Alternate: Milk
Preference: WALL•E (I have not seen Happy-Go-Lucky)

Best Animated Feature Film of the Year
Bolt
Kung Fu Panda
WALL•E

Prediction: WALL•E
Alternate: Kung Fu Panda
Preference: WALL•E (I have not seen Bolt)

Best Documentary Feature
The Betrayal (Nerakhoon)
Encounters at the End of the World
The Garden
Man on Wire
Trouble the Water

Prediction: Man on Wire
Alternate: Trouble the Water

Best Foreign Language Film of the Year
The Baader Meinhof Complex, Germany
The Class, France
Departures, Japan
Revanche, Austria
Waltz With Bashir, Israel

Prediction: The Class
Alternate: Waltz With Bashir
Preference: I’ve only seen The Class, but it is fantastic

Achievement in Art Direction
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Duchess
Revolutionary Road

Prediction: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Alternate: The Dark Knight
Preference: The Duchess

Achievement in Cinematography
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

Prediction: Slumdog Millionaire
Alternate: The Reader
Preference: The Reader

Achievement in Costume Design
Australia
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Duchess
Milk
Revolutionary Road

Prediction: The Duchess
Alternate: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Preference: The Duchess or Milk (I have not seen Australia)

Achievement in Film Editing
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire

Prediction: Slumdog Millionaire
Alternate: The Dark Knight
Preference: Milk

Achievement in Makeup
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Hellboy II: The Golden Army

Prediction: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Alternate: The Dark Knight
Preference: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Score)
Alexandre Desplat, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
James Newton Howard, Defiance
Danny Elfman, Milk
A.R. Rahman, Slumdog Millionaire
Thomas Newman, WALL•E

Prediction: Slumdog Millionaire
Alternate: WALL•E
Preference: WALL•E (I have not seen Defiance)

Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Song)
“Down to Earth,” WALL•E
“Jai Ho,” Slumdog Millionaire
“O Saya,” Slumdog Millionaire

Prediction: “Down to Earth”
Alternate: “Jai Ho”
Preference: “Down to Earth”

Achievement in Sound Editing
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Slumdog Millionaire
WALL•E
Wanted

Prediction: WALL•E
Alternate: The Dark Knight
Preference: WALL•E

Achievement in Sound Mixing
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Slumdog Millionaire
WALL•E
Wanted

Prediction: WALL•E
Alternate: Slumdog Millionaire
Preference: WALL•E

Achievement in Visual Effects
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man

Prediction: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Alternate: Iron Man
Preference: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Best Animated Short Film
La Maison en Petits Cubes
Lavatory – Lovestory
Oktapodi
Presto
This Way Up

Prediction: Presto
Alternate: La Maison en Petits Cubes
Preference: I’ve only seen Presto, which is hilarious, and This Way Up, which is strange, so I’d go with Presto

Best Documentary Short Subject
The Conscience of Nhem En
The Final Inch
Smile Pinki
The Witness – From the Balcony of Room 306

Prediction: The Conscience of Nhem En
Alternate: The Witness – From the Balcony of Room 306

Best Live Action Short Film
Auf der Strecke (On the Line)
Manon on the Asphalt
New Boy
The Pig
Spielzeugland (Toyland)

Prediction: Spielzeugland (Toyland)
Alternate: The Pig

Predicted Number of Wins:
Slumdog Millionaire – 6
WALL•E – 5
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – 3
The Class – 1
The Conscience of Nhem En – 1
The Dark Knight – 1
Doubt – 1
The Duchess – 1
Man on Wire – 1
Milk – 1
Presto – 1
The Reader – 1
Spielzeugland (Toyland) – 1

I don't see a Slumdog clean sweep like some people are thinking. It'll be the big winner, but it will not sweep. And there's no way Benjamin Button, a tech marvel and nomination leader, will go home empty-handed. I do predict that WALL•E will be the runner up at Oscar night since it's so beloved, but The Dark Knight will have only one consolation prize for losing out in the Best Picture lineup.

This has been an odd Oscar year for sure...

~Steven