So I did have a last-minute Oscar prediction change that I did not post here. It was Slumdog winning for Sound Mixing, which it did. To my mistake, I decided not to jump on the Departures wagon, which many people did at the last second. So my prediction count is 17 out of 24. Eh, I've done much better before, but it is what it is.
I enjoyed the telecast of the Academy Awards with a couple of exceptions, one of those being that awful tribute to movie musicals... what were they thinking?! I did love seeing the past acting winners, but I missed the "Oscar clips" they usually show for each nominee. Otherwise, I love Hugh Jackman, I love seeing no acceptance speech cut off, I love the cohesiveness of the awards presented, I love the focus on the craft. It was a good pat-on-the-back for Hollywood and it made the general masses understand a little better what is involved in filmmaking. It was a celebration for all movies, not just those nominated. I like that.
As for the winners, I think anyone obsessed with Oscar prognostication saw no real surprises. Sure, I predicted Viola Davis to win, but Cruz was always the favorite, and she's hilarious in that movie. There were no truly undeserved wins. I don't think Slumdog deserved many (or any) of their awards, but I won't deny that it was a fairly decent movie with great direction and impressive technical aspects. I attended a party where the people who saw Slumdog said they liked The Reader better. I am one who shares that opinion. I think The Reader deserved the awards for Cinematography and especially Adapted Screenplay, both of which went to Slumdog. And I do believe WALL•E deserved many more awards (it only got the ghetto Animated Feature prize). At least Kate Winslet finally won an Oscar (!) in one of her best performances to date. Well deserved! And although I loved Mickey Rourke in The Wrestler, Sean Penn richly deserves an Oscar for his performance in Milk.
What I'm most excited about is rewatching all these movies after the fact. I can't wait to get The Reader on Blu-ray or give Slumdog a second chance or see Japan's winning movie or be inspired once again by Milk. If this wasn't a great year for movies, it was a good year at the Oscars.
Moving on...
~Steven
Monday, February 23, 2009
Monday, February 16, 2009
Oscar Predictions
Okay, so I dropped the ball in terms of writing up about all of the major Oscar nominees. But here you go: my predictions of the Academy Awards. You'll find my predictions, alternates, and preferences. I have seen all the nominees unless otherwise noted. If I make no preference, I have not seen any of the nominees (basically, I haven't seen the nominated documentaries or shorts).
Best Motion Picture of the Year
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire
Prediction: Slumdog Millionaire
Alternate: The Reader
Preference: The Reader
Achievement in Directing
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Gus Van Sant, Milk
Stephen Daldry, The Reader
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Prediction: Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Alternate: David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Preference: Gus Van Sant, Milk
Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Prediction: Sean Penn
Alternate: Mickey Rourke
Preference: Sean Penn or Mickey Rourke
Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, The Reader
Prediction: Kate Winslet
Alternate: Meryl Streep
Preference: Kate Winslet
Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road
Prediction: Heath Ledger
Alternate: Josh Brolin
Preference: Heath Ledger
Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penélope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Prediction: Viola Davis
Alternate: Penélope Cruz
Preference: Marisa Tomei
Adapted Screenplay
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Eric Roth and Robin Swicord
Doubt, John Patrick Shanley
Frost/Nixon, Peter Morgan
The Reader, David Hare
Slumdog Millionaire, Simon Beaufoy
Prediction: Slumdog Millionaire
Alternate: The Reader
Preference: The Reader
Original Screenplay
Frozen River, Courtney Hunt
Happy-Go-Lucky, Mike Leigh
In Bruges, Martin McDonagh
Milk, Dustin Lance Black
WALL•E, Andrew Stanton, Jim Reardon, Pete Docter
Prediction: WALL•E
Alternate: Milk
Preference: WALL•E (I have not seen Happy-Go-Lucky)
Best Animated Feature Film of the Year
Bolt
Kung Fu Panda
WALL•E
Prediction: WALL•E
Alternate: Kung Fu Panda
Preference: WALL•E (I have not seen Bolt)
Best Documentary Feature
The Betrayal (Nerakhoon)
Encounters at the End of the World
The Garden
Man on Wire
Trouble the Water
Prediction: Man on Wire
Alternate: Trouble the Water
Best Foreign Language Film of the Year
The Baader Meinhof Complex, Germany
The Class, France
Departures, Japan
Revanche, Austria
Waltz With Bashir, Israel
Prediction: The Class
Alternate: Waltz With Bashir
Preference: I’ve only seen The Class, but it is fantastic
Achievement in Art Direction
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Duchess
Revolutionary Road
Prediction: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Alternate: The Dark Knight
Preference: The Duchess
Achievement in Cinematography
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire
Prediction: Slumdog Millionaire
Alternate: The Reader
Preference: The Reader
Achievement in Costume Design
Australia
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Duchess
Milk
Revolutionary Road
Prediction: The Duchess
Alternate: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Preference: The Duchess or Milk (I have not seen Australia)
Achievement in Film Editing
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
Prediction: Slumdog Millionaire
Alternate: The Dark Knight
Preference: Milk
Achievement in Makeup
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Hellboy II: The Golden Army
Prediction: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Alternate: The Dark Knight
Preference: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Score)
Alexandre Desplat, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
James Newton Howard, Defiance
Danny Elfman, Milk
A.R. Rahman, Slumdog Millionaire
Thomas Newman, WALL•E
Prediction: Slumdog Millionaire
Alternate: WALL•E
Preference: WALL•E (I have not seen Defiance)
Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Song)
“Down to Earth,” WALL•E
“Jai Ho,” Slumdog Millionaire
“O Saya,” Slumdog Millionaire
Prediction: “Down to Earth”
Alternate: “Jai Ho”
Preference: “Down to Earth”
Achievement in Sound Editing
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Slumdog Millionaire
WALL•E
Wanted
Prediction: WALL•E
Alternate: The Dark Knight
Preference: WALL•E
Achievement in Sound Mixing
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Slumdog Millionaire
WALL•E
Wanted
Prediction: WALL•E
Alternate: Slumdog Millionaire
Preference: WALL•E
Achievement in Visual Effects
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Prediction: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Alternate: Iron Man
Preference: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Best Animated Short Film
La Maison en Petits Cubes
Lavatory – Lovestory
Oktapodi
Presto
This Way Up
Prediction: Presto
Alternate: La Maison en Petits Cubes
Preference: I’ve only seen Presto, which is hilarious, and This Way Up, which is strange, so I’d go with Presto
Best Documentary Short Subject
The Conscience of Nhem En
The Final Inch
Smile Pinki
The Witness – From the Balcony of Room 306
Prediction: The Conscience of Nhem En
Alternate: The Witness – From the Balcony of Room 306
Best Live Action Short Film
Auf der Strecke (On the Line)
Manon on the Asphalt
New Boy
The Pig
Spielzeugland (Toyland)
Prediction: Spielzeugland (Toyland)
Alternate: The Pig
Predicted Number of Wins:
Slumdog Millionaire – 6
WALL•E – 5
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – 3
The Class – 1
The Conscience of Nhem En – 1
The Dark Knight – 1
Doubt – 1
The Duchess – 1
Man on Wire – 1
Milk – 1
Presto – 1
The Reader – 1
Spielzeugland (Toyland) – 1
I don't see a Slumdog clean sweep like some people are thinking. It'll be the big winner, but it will not sweep. And there's no way Benjamin Button, a tech marvel and nomination leader, will go home empty-handed. I do predict that WALL•E will be the runner up at Oscar night since it's so beloved, but The Dark Knight will have only one consolation prize for losing out in the Best Picture lineup.
This has been an odd Oscar year for sure...
~Steven
Best Motion Picture of the Year
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire
Prediction: Slumdog Millionaire
Alternate: The Reader
Preference: The Reader
Achievement in Directing
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Gus Van Sant, Milk
Stephen Daldry, The Reader
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Prediction: Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Alternate: David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Preference: Gus Van Sant, Milk
Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Prediction: Sean Penn
Alternate: Mickey Rourke
Preference: Sean Penn or Mickey Rourke
Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, The Reader
Prediction: Kate Winslet
Alternate: Meryl Streep
Preference: Kate Winslet
Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road
Prediction: Heath Ledger
Alternate: Josh Brolin
Preference: Heath Ledger
Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penélope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Prediction: Viola Davis
Alternate: Penélope Cruz
Preference: Marisa Tomei
Adapted Screenplay
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Eric Roth and Robin Swicord
Doubt, John Patrick Shanley
Frost/Nixon, Peter Morgan
The Reader, David Hare
Slumdog Millionaire, Simon Beaufoy
Prediction: Slumdog Millionaire
Alternate: The Reader
Preference: The Reader
Original Screenplay
Frozen River, Courtney Hunt
Happy-Go-Lucky, Mike Leigh
In Bruges, Martin McDonagh
Milk, Dustin Lance Black
WALL•E, Andrew Stanton, Jim Reardon, Pete Docter
Prediction: WALL•E
Alternate: Milk
Preference: WALL•E (I have not seen Happy-Go-Lucky)
Best Animated Feature Film of the Year
Bolt
Kung Fu Panda
WALL•E
Prediction: WALL•E
Alternate: Kung Fu Panda
Preference: WALL•E (I have not seen Bolt)
Best Documentary Feature
The Betrayal (Nerakhoon)
Encounters at the End of the World
The Garden
Man on Wire
Trouble the Water
Prediction: Man on Wire
Alternate: Trouble the Water
Best Foreign Language Film of the Year
The Baader Meinhof Complex, Germany
The Class, France
Departures, Japan
Revanche, Austria
Waltz With Bashir, Israel
Prediction: The Class
Alternate: Waltz With Bashir
Preference: I’ve only seen The Class, but it is fantastic
Achievement in Art Direction
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Duchess
Revolutionary Road
Prediction: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Alternate: The Dark Knight
Preference: The Duchess
Achievement in Cinematography
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire
Prediction: Slumdog Millionaire
Alternate: The Reader
Preference: The Reader
Achievement in Costume Design
Australia
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Duchess
Milk
Revolutionary Road
Prediction: The Duchess
Alternate: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Preference: The Duchess or Milk (I have not seen Australia)
Achievement in Film Editing
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
Prediction: Slumdog Millionaire
Alternate: The Dark Knight
Preference: Milk
Achievement in Makeup
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Hellboy II: The Golden Army
Prediction: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Alternate: The Dark Knight
Preference: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Score)
Alexandre Desplat, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
James Newton Howard, Defiance
Danny Elfman, Milk
A.R. Rahman, Slumdog Millionaire
Thomas Newman, WALL•E
Prediction: Slumdog Millionaire
Alternate: WALL•E
Preference: WALL•E (I have not seen Defiance)
Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Song)
“Down to Earth,” WALL•E
“Jai Ho,” Slumdog Millionaire
“O Saya,” Slumdog Millionaire
Prediction: “Down to Earth”
Alternate: “Jai Ho”
Preference: “Down to Earth”
Achievement in Sound Editing
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Slumdog Millionaire
WALL•E
Wanted
Prediction: WALL•E
Alternate: The Dark Knight
Preference: WALL•E
Achievement in Sound Mixing
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Slumdog Millionaire
WALL•E
Wanted
Prediction: WALL•E
Alternate: Slumdog Millionaire
Preference: WALL•E
Achievement in Visual Effects
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Prediction: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Alternate: Iron Man
Preference: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Best Animated Short Film
La Maison en Petits Cubes
Lavatory – Lovestory
Oktapodi
Presto
This Way Up
Prediction: Presto
Alternate: La Maison en Petits Cubes
Preference: I’ve only seen Presto, which is hilarious, and This Way Up, which is strange, so I’d go with Presto
Best Documentary Short Subject
The Conscience of Nhem En
The Final Inch
Smile Pinki
The Witness – From the Balcony of Room 306
Prediction: The Conscience of Nhem En
Alternate: The Witness – From the Balcony of Room 306
Best Live Action Short Film
Auf der Strecke (On the Line)
Manon on the Asphalt
New Boy
The Pig
Spielzeugland (Toyland)
Prediction: Spielzeugland (Toyland)
Alternate: The Pig
Predicted Number of Wins:
Slumdog Millionaire – 6
WALL•E – 5
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – 3
The Class – 1
The Conscience of Nhem En – 1
The Dark Knight – 1
Doubt – 1
The Duchess – 1
Man on Wire – 1
Milk – 1
Presto – 1
The Reader – 1
Spielzeugland (Toyland) – 1
I don't see a Slumdog clean sweep like some people are thinking. It'll be the big winner, but it will not sweep. And there's no way Benjamin Button, a tech marvel and nomination leader, will go home empty-handed. I do predict that WALL•E will be the runner up at Oscar night since it's so beloved, but The Dark Knight will have only one consolation prize for losing out in the Best Picture lineup.
This has been an odd Oscar year for sure...
~Steven
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